What’s Coming for Pacific Northwest Construction

The Scorecard — How August’s Predictions Are Tracking

Prediction 1 (Residential — Bend/Kennewick divergence) — Still no clean signal; we owe you data we don’t have. We went looking for July and August county-level permit totals for Bend and Kennewick to see whether Kennewick’s January spike repeated. We could not confirm official monthly totals for either market for this period from city or county sources. That’s on us to keep chasing, not a finding in itself. We’re carrying this prediction forward unresolved rather than guessing.

Prediction 2 (Multifamily — Oregon-specific subsidized data) — Directionally confirmed, though we still lack a clean market-rate comparison. Oregon Housing and Community Services approved funding in March for 329 affordable homes across four properties in Astoria, Redmond, and Portland. Eugene alone reports 441 affordable units currently under construction with another 103 expected to break ground in 2026. That’s a subsidized pipeline that kept moving right through the same stretch when national market-rate multifamily was rebounding hard. We still don’t have a precise Oregon-specific split between subsidized and market-rate permit volume, so we can’t fully close this one out, but the evidence so far supports the stronger version of last month’s thesis: Oregon’s subsidized pipeline isn’t just surviving the market-rate swings, it’s running on its own track.

Prediction 3 (Nonresidential Commercial — a second month above 47 would signal a turn) — Missed, and the wrong direction. The July Architecture Billings Index came in at 46.6, down from June’s 47.3, not the second consecutive improvement we said would matter. This extends the ABI’s losing streak to nearly three and a half years, officially the longest downturn in the index’s 30-plus-year history. AIA’s own chief economist attributed part of the July dip to high oil prices feeding inflation. Our late-2027 recovery call now looks, if anything, optimistic rather than conservative.

Prediction 4 (Public Works — I-5 Bridge prequalification window) — Confirmed and advancing on schedule. The Interstate Bridge Replacement Program cleared its Amended Record of Decision on July 1, 2026, completing federal environmental review. An RFQ for the Columbia River Bridge Replacement itself posted August 24, 2026, with a full RFP expected later this year and a design-builder hire targeted for 2027. On the transit side, the program’s own contract-resources listing still shows the Hayden Island Guideway ($55–85 million) and Marine Drive Package A ($38–58 million) advertising in 2026, exactly as flagged last month. Firms that started prequalification conversations when we first called this are now positioned ahead of a formally open procurement window.

Prediction 5 (Materials — lumber relief by Q4, metals elevated through year-end) — Half right, and the lumber half just got pushed back. Metals remain the dominant cost story, and July’s numbers actually show acceleration on two of three: steel mill products rose 22.5% year-over-year in July (up from 16.9% in June) and copper and brass mill shapes were up 18.4%. Aluminum mill shapes were up 40.5% year-over-year in July, still enormous, though off June’s 52.4% pace. That’s our metals call holding, if not intensifying. Lumber is where the news changed: Commerce’s final softwood lumber determination, which we expected “any day” in August, has been pushed to October 2026. In the meantime, the PPI for lumber and plywood jumped 9.9% year-over-year in July, the sharpest increase since March 2022, moving the opposite direction from the relief we were watching for. If you budgeted framing costs assuming an August resolution, revisit that assumption now.

Prediction 6 (Workforce — regional labor migration, not net growth) — Still unconfirmed; the data we need doesn’t exist yet in public form. We were unable to locate updated dispatch-hours or worker-migration data for July or August. The only adjacent data point we found was a Tri-Cities Area Journal of Business report describing the regional labor force as “plateauing.” That’s suggestive but not proof of anything specific to construction trades or to the sorting pattern we described. This remains our least-evidenced call, and we’re flagging it as such rather than declaring a win we haven’t earned.

Six Predictions for September 2026

Prediction 1 — Residential

Bend and Tri-Cities Permit Data Needs a Real Source Before We Call Anything

Our Call: We’re not making a new directional call on Bend or Kennewick residential permitting until we can cite an actual monthly total from a city or county source. Continuing to guess at a trend from secondhand aggregator data does readers a disservice.

Watch This: Deschutes County and City of Bend building-safety permit summaries; Benton County/City of Kennewick permit reports, ideally released alongside Q3 totals in October.

Prediction 2 — Multifamily

Oregon’s Subsidized Pipeline Should Keep Outrunning the National Market-Rate Cycle

Our Call: Expect OHCS to announce at least one more funding round before year-end, and expect Eugene’s under-construction and about-to-break-ground affordable totals to hold or grow rather than slip. If national market-rate multifamily’s June rebound continues, that’s good news for the sector broadly, but it shouldn’t be read as evidence the subsidized pipeline is only moving because the market-rate side stalled.

Watch This: OHCS Housing Stability Council funding announcements and the Census Bureau’s Q3 2026 multifamily permit release.

Prediction 3 — Nonresidential Commercial

Push the Recovery Timeline Further Out

Our Call: With July’s ABI moving backward instead of building on June’s uptick, we’re revising our recovery window later: a sustained above-50 reading before mid-to-late 2027 now looks unlikely absent a clear turn in interest rates or tariff policy. Treat any single-month improvement between now and then as noise unless it’s followed by a second consecutive gain.

Watch This: The August ABI, released by AIA in mid-September, and the September ABI due in October.

Prediction 4 — Public Works

The I-5 Bridge RFQ Is the Single Highest-Priority Item on Your Calendar Right Now

Our Call: Expect the formal RFP to follow the current RFQ before the end of 2026, with a design-builder shortlist firming up in early-to-mid 2027. Heavy-civil, structural, and transit-systems firms that haven’t engaged with WSDOT, ODOT, or TriMet on this program are now behind a real, dated procurement process, not a planning exercise.

Watch This: interstatebridge.org/opportunities for RFP issuance and advertisement dates on the Hayden Island Guideway and Marine Drive Package A.

Prediction 5 — Materials

No Meaningful Relief on Any Major Input Before Q4 at the Earliest

Our Call: With Commerce’s final softwood lumber determination now pushed to October, and lumber and plywood prices still climbing (up 9.9% year-over-year in July) while the ruling is pending, don’t bank framing-cost relief into Q3 budgets. Metals should be budgeted at current elevated levels through year-end regardless of the lumber outcome; steel’s acceleration in July is a signal to watch, not dismiss.

Watch This: Commerce’s final AD/CVD determination in October and the next AGC/BLS producer price index release.

Prediction 6 — Workforce

We’re Withholding Further Comment Until We Have Real Data

Our Call: Rather than repeat an unconfirmed migration thesis a third time, we’re pausing this prediction until we can source actual dispatch-hours or apprenticeship-placement data by region from Oregon BOLI or Washington L&I/WSATC. A repeated unconfirmed call isn’t a stronger call.

Watch This: Oregon BOLI and Washington L&I/WSATC Q3 apprenticeship and dispatch reporting.