Predictive Pipeline — August 2026
What’s Coming for Pacific Northwest Construction
THE SCORECARD — HOW JULY’S PREDICTIONS ARE TRACKING
Prediction 1 (Residential — Bend/Tri-Cities) — Developing, not confirming. We finally have the county-level data we were missing last month, and it’s a split verdict. Bend building permits sat at 175 in January 2026 — up from August 2025’s low of 137, but nowhere near July 2025’s spike of 464. Choppy, not trending. Kennewick told a different story: 406 permits in January 2026, more than double December’s 191 and the highest single month in over a year of data. One region shows volume without a trend; the other shows a spike without confirmation. We’re not calling the in-migration thesis yet — next month’s numbers matter more than this month’s did.
Prediction 2 (Multifamily) — Complicated by a national reversal we didn’t see coming. Our call was that subsidized Oregon multifamily would keep moving while market-rate multifamily tracked a grim national decline. Then June happened: national multifamily starts didn’t just stabilize, they jumped 76.3% month-over-month to a 513,000 SAAR pace, up 17.2% year-over-year. That’s a sharp reversal from May’s 41.6% collapse. This doesn’t disprove our subsidized-pipeline thesis, but it removes the “market-rate is dead” half of the contrast we were drawing. The real question now is whether Oregon’s Housing Trust Fund and SDC-waiver projects are still moving faster or more reliably than market-rate — not whether market-rate is moving at all. We need Oregon-specific multifamily permit data to actually answer that, and we don’t have it yet.
Prediction 3 (Nonresidential Commercial) — Still below the line, but ticking up. The June ABI came in at 47.3 — nearly three points above May’s 44.5, but still under 50, meaning most firms are still reporting declining billings. That’s month 41 of the longest downturn in the ABI’s 30-plus-year history. Our revised call — recovery pushed to late 2027, contingent on sustained readings above 50 — stands. One month of improvement off a very weak base isn’t a trend yet.
Prediction 4 (Public Works) — Confirmed and advancing. The I-5 Bridge Replacement Program didn’t just clear its Amended Record of Decision — as of early August it has formal federal approval to move into procurement and permitting, backed by $5.7 billion in secured funding for the first phase (bridge span, I-5 connections, and light-rail-ready structure). TriMet’s light rail package ($190–290 million) and the Hayden Island Guideway ($55–85 million) are both slated to advertise later this year. This is playing out exactly as our highest-confidence call predicted.
Prediction 5 (Materials) — Confirmed on metals, and a real new development on lumber. Metals pressure hasn’t eased: aluminum mill shapes were up 52% year-over-year as of June data, copper and brass mill shapes up 26%, steel mill products up 17%. That’s our “new baseline, not a spike” call holding firm. But lumber just got more interesting than “moderating” — Commerce’s preliminary review of Canadian softwood lumber duties points toward cutting the combined AD/CVD rate from 35.16% to roughly 24.83%, which would drop the effective all-in rate (with the Section 232 tariff layered on) from about 45% to roughly 35%. A final determination is expected any day now. If it lands near the preliminary number, that’s real relief on framing costs by Q4 — worth noting since at least one regional supplier has reportedly been telling customers the opposite is coming.
Prediction 6 (Workforce) — Confirmed, but not the way we expected. We now have real numbers: Oregon’s apprenticeship pipeline stands at 9,813 active apprentices; Washington’s is close to 16,000, up from roughly 14,400 a year ago. Enrollment is genuinely growing in both states, which is what we called. But a companion data point reframes it: Washington’s building trades unions report nearly 10,000 union construction workers out of work at the end of 2025, with more than 8,000 sitting on apprenticeship waitlists unable to get dispatched. The bottleneck isn’t people willing to train — it’s consistent, dispatchable hours once they’re trained. That distinction matters more than the raw enrollment number does.
SIX PREDICTIONS FOR AUGUST 2026
PREDICTION 1 — RESIDENTIAL
Regional Permit Data Will Diverge Further Before It Converges
Bend’s choppy permitting and Kennewick’s January spike are two different stories, not two data points on the same trend line.
Our Call: Expect continued volatility rather than a clean signal in either market through Q3. If Kennewick’s spike repeats in a second month, treat it as a real demand signal tied to Tri-Cities growth. If it doesn’t, it was likely a multifamily filing cluster, not a trend.
Watch This: Kennewick and Bend permit data for July and August, released by their respective county offices.
PREDICTION 2 — MULTIFAMILY
The Subsidized-vs-Market-Rate Distinction Needs Oregon-Specific Data to Mean Anything
National multifamily’s June rebound means our original contrast — subsidized Oregon multifamily moving independently of a collapsing national market — needs a new baseline, since the “collapsing” half just reversed hard.
Our Call: We’re holding this prediction open pending Oregon-specific multifamily permit and Housing Trust Fund award data. If Oregon’s subsidized pipeline is still outpacing market-rate locally even as the national market-rate numbers rebound, that’s actually a stronger version of our original thesis. If it isn’t, the distinction we drew last month wasn’t the right one.
Watch This: Oregon Housing and Community Services award data and OFM/Census permit releases specific to multifamily by funding source.
PREDICTION 3 — NONRESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL
One Month Above 47 Doesn’t Break the Downturn
June’s ABI uptick is real but small, and it’s happening against a 41-month losing streak.
Our Call: Expect the July ABI (releasing in August) to matter more than June’s did. A second consecutive month of improvement — especially one that clears 50 — would be the first real signal that our late-2027 recovery timeline should move up. Absent that, treat June as noise, not a turn.
Watch This: The July ABI release and AIA’s regional breakdowns for the West.
PREDICTION 4 — PUBLIC WORKS
The I-5 Bridge Prequalification Window Is Open Now
With federal approval secured and $5.7 billion committed to the first phase, the program is moving from planning into procurement faster than the original scoped-down timeline suggested.
Our Call: Contractors and subs in transit systems, structural, and heavy civil work who haven’t started prequalification conversations with WSDOT, ODOT, or TriMet are already behind. The TriMet and Hayden Island packages advertising later this year won’t wait for late adopters.
Watch This: interstatebridge.org/opportunities for advertisement dates on the TriMet light rail and Hayden Island Guideway packages.
PREDICTION 5 — MATERIALS
Lumber Relief Is Plausible by Q4 — Metals Pressure Isn’t Going Anywhere
Commerce’s final softwood lumber determination is the single most consequential near-term data point for residential framing budgets in this region, and it’s arguably good news rather than bad.
Our Call: If the final AD/CVD rate lands near the preliminary 24.83%, expect a meaningful — though not dramatic — easing in Canadian SPF-linked framing costs by Q4, with knock-on relief for Douglas fir pricing given how tightly the two compete. That relief will not extend to metals-heavy trades; aluminum, copper, and steel should be budgeted at current elevated levels through year-end regardless of the lumber outcome.
Watch This: Commerce’s final determination, expected this month, and the July PPI release on August 13 for the next materials data point.
PREDICTION 6 — WORKFORCE
Expect Regional Labor Migration, Not Net Workforce Growth
Rising apprenticeship enrollment paired with a dispatch bottleneck in Washington’s union halls suggests trained workers will go where the hours are, not necessarily stay where they trained.
Our Call: Watch for apprentices and recently credentialed workers trained in Portland/Seattle-area programs following dispatch hours toward higher-permit-activity markets like Bend and the Tri-Cities. This is a sorting process within the regional labor pool, not evidence the overall shortage is resolving. It’s also not a new pattern for this region — it’s the same basic calculation that has always sent workers toward wherever the job hours actually are.
Watch This: County-level construction wage and hiring data over the next two quarters, and whether Washington’s union out-of-work numbers improve as dispatch catches up to enrollment.
NEXT MONTH — WHAT WE’LL BE WATCHING
- August 13: BLS July 2026 PPI release
- Mid-August: Census Bureau July 2026 Housing Starts and Permits
- Late August: July ABI release from AIA
- This month: Commerce’s final softwood lumber AD/CVD determination
- Ongoing: I-5 Bridge procurement advertisements — TriMet light rail and Hayden Island Guideway packages
The Predictive Pipeline is published monthly by NW Construction News. Data sources: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index, U.S. Census Bureau New Residential Construction Report, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index, Associated Builders and Contractors/Associated General Contractors of America, Interstate Bridge Replacement Program, Oregon BOLI, Washington State Apprenticeship and Training Council, U.S. Department of Commerce. All analysis represents the editorial opinion of NW Construction News and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.
