Remodeling Is the Bright Spot in a Soft Residential Market — Aging Housing Stock and Locked-In Homeowners Are Driving a Sustained Wave of Renovation Work
While new residential construction permits remain under pressure across Oregon and Washington, one sector of the residential market is holding up remarkably well: remodeling. “Despite affordability concerns, rising homeowner equity and an aging housing stock are powering demand for residential remodeling,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, noting that the remodeling market remains relatively strong despite rising material costs. The dynamic driving this is exactly what we described in our recent market analysis: homeowners locked into 2-3% mortgages who have no rational incentive to sell are instead investing in their existing homes — kitchens, bathrooms, additions, ADUs, energy upgrades, and deferred maintenance — converting what would have been move-up buying activity into renovation spending. Compared with a year earlier, total mortgage application activity remained 7.9% higher, with refinance applications up 15.6% and purchase applications rising 3.1% — a mix that suggests homeowners are tapping equity for renovations more than they’re buying new homes. For Oregon and Washington remodeling contractors and specialty trade subcontractors, the message is clear: the lock-in effect that is constraining new home sales is simultaneously generating a sustained wave of renovation work that shows no signs of slowing as long as rates stay elevated.
